APPLICATION OF MULTIPLE LINEAR REGRESSION ANALYSIS TO FORECAST ELECTRICITY CONSUMPTION IN CHONBURI PROVINCE

This research studied forecasting electricity consumption in Chonburi province, Thailand. Multiple linear regression method was applied in this research using three crucial variables; number of electricity customers, rainfall and temperature to fit the equation. All data was separated by two data sets, training and validation. The first set was used to generate the predicting equation and the other was to validate the accuracy performance with mean absolute percentage error (MAPE). All assumptions of regression analysis were tested by Anderson-Darling statistic, Durbin-Watson statistic, Breusch-Pagan statistic and Variance inflation factor. Finally, the performance of predicting was monitored. The results displayed the regression standard error, the adjusted coefficients of determination and MAPE with 2,299,595, 0.879 and 3.853%, respectively.